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Expert prediction

US Open: Novak Djokovic vs. Carlos Alcaraz Preview, Odds, H2H, Picks (Sep 5)

  • Nikola Velickovic
  • Sep 3, 2025 at 2:31 AM EDT

Pick rationale

Analysis & key factors

  • Djokovic vs. Alcaraz odds favor the Spaniard at -300.
  • Novak leads in head-to-head against Carlos, 5-4.
  • The last meeting was at the Australian Open this year, where Novak won 3-1.

New king against the old one. That’s how we can describe the clash between Carlitos and Novak in the US Open semifinals.

US Open: Jannik Sinner vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime Preview, Odds, H2H, Picks (Sep 5)

How to Watch

  • When: Friday, August 5, 3 pm ET
  • Where: Flushing Meadows, New York, New York
  • How to Watch: ESPN, Tennis Channel

Djokovic vs. Alcaraz Odds

PlayerOddsTotal
Djokovic+25038
Alcaraz-30038

Game Preview

Novak cruised past Taylor Fritz in the quarterfinals, where he won 3-1, 6-3, 7-5, 3-6, 6-4. Interestingly, Djokovic has lost three sets so far, which is not typically the case when he competes at Flushing. The 24-time Grand Slam winner beat Tien, Svajda, Cameron Norrie, and Jan-Lennard Struff before reaching Fritz.

The difference in aces wasn’t high at all, as Fritz had 12 and Djokovic 10. What was unusual for Novak was the fact that he had only 55% of 2nd serve points won. Also, a troubling fact for the Serb is that he had 33 winners and 40 unforced errors, and that Fritz ended the match with 46 winners and 42 unforced errors.

Alcaraz didn’t lose a single set here in New York and he looks perfect so far. After winning in Cincinnati, he continued to pound at the same intensity, wiping out his competition. One by one, Opelka, Bellucci, Darderi, Rinderknech, and lastly Lehecka fell before the Spaniard.

Lehecka didn’t stand a chance with Alcaraz winning in straight sets, 6-4, 6-2, 6-4. Carlos was way too powerful, ending the match with 28 winners, 12 more than the rival and 17 errors, five fewer than the Czech player.

Djokovic vs. Alcaraz Head to Head

The Serb was better than Alcaraz in the previous meeting in Australia at the start of this year, 3-1. Overall, it’s 5-4 in Djokovic’s favor counting in all the matches in all the competitions, even those which aren’t ATP.

Djokovic vs. Alcaraz Predictions

Novak can handle Carlitos, and we’ve seen that. However, Alcaraz’s form is currently at an exceptionally high level, and considering the entire picture, we are backing the younger and more energetic player here.

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