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Expert prediction

Wimbledon: Andrey Rublev vs. Carlos Alcaraz Preview, Odds, Head to Head, Picks (Jul 6)

  • Nikola Velickovic
  • Jul 4, 2025 at 5:45 PM EDT

Pick rationale

Analysis & key factors

  • Rublev vs. Alcaraz Round of 16 Wimbledon clash is set for this Sunday.
  • Carlos Alcaraz has 21 straight wins.
  • Rublev vs. Alcaraz H2H is 2-2.

Carlos Alcaraz isn’t playing overconfident tennis, but he is winning. On the other hand, Andrey Rublev is heating up, having won the past five of his events.

Check out other Wimbledon picks.

How to Watch

  • When: Sunday, July 6, not before 10 am ET
  • Where: Wimbledon, England
  • How to Watch: ESPN+

Rublev vs. Alcaraz Odds

PlayerOddsTotal
Rublev+105033.5
Alcaraz-200033.5

Match Preview

Rublev has five straight wins on the grass, counting in the Boodles Challenge. Back there, his victims were Eubanks and Goffin, while after that, we saw him beat Laslo Djere, Harris, and Mannarino in London.

After back-to-back 3-1 triumphs in the opening rounds, he was swift and effective against Mannarino, whom he defeated 3-0. The match lasted two hours, where Rublev had 14 aces, 5/8 break point conversion, and 33 winners.

While many say that Carlitos isn’t playing well and that he shows signs of struggle, just a few remember that the Spaniard has 21 straight wins. Yes, 21, you’ve read it right. He beat Fognini 3-2 in the first round, then 3-0 Tarvet, before taking down Jan-Lennard Struff 3-1.

Alcaraz’s first serve was problematic, as he had only a 58% success rate. His winner/error ratio was 38-28, but the good thing is that he won 15 of his 19 net points.

Rublev vs. Alcaraz Head to Head

There were 4 matches between the two so far, and the head-to-head record is level at 2 each. The most recent event was at the ATP Masters in Turin, where Alcaraz beat Rublev 2-0.

Rublev vs. Alcaraz Predictions

Alcaraz is the absolute favorite here, and even though Rublev plays well, we expect to see Carlos winning and covering a -1.5-set spread.

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