Expert prediction
Horse Racing Picks: Florida Derby Prediction, Preview, and Odds (Mar 30)
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
- Florida Derby is the standout race at Gulfstream Park this weekend
- This race is renowned for throwing up Kentucky Derby contenders
One of the most important Kentucky Derby prep races this year will take place at Gulfstream Park on Saturday. The Florida Derby has produced 21 winners of Triple Crown races, including three Kentucky Derby winners since 2013. But, which runner will land the spoils this weekend?
Schedule and How To Watch
- When: Saturday, March 30, 2024 from 8:47 PM ET
- Where: Gulfstream Park, Florida
- How To Watch: FanDuel TV
Florida Derby Odds
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| Fierceness | +137 |
| Hades | +300 |
| Conquest Warrior | +350 |
| Bail Us Out | +1200 |
| Frankie’s Empire | +1400 |
| Grand Mo The First | +2000 |
| Le Dom Bro | +2000 |
| Iris’s Dream | +3300 |
| Real Macho | +3300 |
| Seminole Chief | +3300 |
| Catalytic | +5000 |
Race Preview
Important action on the Road to the Kentucky Derby takes place at Gulfstream Park this weekend, as the prestigious Florida Derby is staged. This Grade One will cover a total distance of 1 1/8 miles, with the field competing for their share of the $1 million purse. It has been revered for establishing Triple Crown winners throughout history, with 21 winners passing through this race.
Fierceness will be the leading contender in the betting for trainer Todd Pletcher. The three-year-old was a very impressive winner of the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year, but he was underwhelming on his return to action when finishing only third in the G3 Holy Bull. A standout win will be required this weekend.
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It’s not hard to poke holes in the Fierceness form, meaning that there could be value in opposing the favorite. Hades has already got the better of his re-appearing rival, landing the G3 Holy Bull in impressive fashion in February. His course form reads very strong, winning on all three starts at Gulfstream Park.
Conquest Warrior is another runner that ticks a lot of boxes, and he is certainly improving with every start for Claude McGaughey. On his previous effort, he registered an Equibase speed rating of 85 when winning an allowance optional claimer, and is unlikely to be that far away.
Florida Derby Prediction
My interest in Fierceness has cooled after his sub-par effort in the Holy Bull, and I’d be interested in siding with that form being maintained on Saturday. At the prices, Bail Us Out could be an exotics play, with the Todd Pletcher runner landing a very impressive victory on his previous outing at Gulfstream Park.
Free Picks:
- Win: Hades
- Exacta Box: (2) Hades/ (3) Bail Us Out/ (10) Fierceness
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