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Expert prediction

NFL Week 18: Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Preview, Odds, Picks (Jan 4)

  • Nikola Velickovic
  • Jan 1, 2026 at 4:53 AM EST

Pick rationale

Analysis & key factors

  • Dolphins vs. Patriots total is 45.5 points.
  • Pats are in contention for the AFC No.1 seed.
  • 6 of the last 9 games Miami played went UNDER.

For the Pats, this is a very important game because they still have a chance to take the No.1 seed in the AFC.

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How to Watch

  • When: Sunday, January 4, 4:25 pm ET
  • Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
  • How to Watch: FOX

Dolphins vs. Patriots Odds

TeamMoneylineSpreadTotals
Dolphins+455+10.545.5
Patriots-625-10.545.5

Game Preview

The Miami Dolphins started Quinn Ewers in the last two games, and after a slower start against the Bengals, he was excellent against the Buccaneers. In a 20-17 victory, he threw for 172 passing yards and 2 touchdowns.

By the way, this was the 5th win for the Fins in the past 7 games, losing to the Steelers on the road, and the Begnals also on the road, when Ewers started for the first time.

Pats are going out with starters and hope to see the Chargers beat the Broncos in the division rivalry. The chances for that are slim, but Mike Vrabel still hopes to see this coming.

Drake Maye had 5 touchdowns in the first half against the Jets, in a game that ended 42-10 for the Pats. We personally believe this performance sealed his MFL MVP campaign.

Dolphins vs. Patriots Head to Head

The Miami Dolphins have a positive record against the Pats in the all-time series, 64-56. Until this year’s loss, 33-27 in Miami, they won 8 of the last 9 encounters.

Dolphins vs. Patriots Predictions

Pats are favorites here, and we strongly believe they will roll over the division rivals and cover a 10.5-point spread.

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