Expert prediction
Louisiana Derby Stakes Picks, Odds & Preview (Mar 21)
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
Key action on the Road to the Kentucky Derby is set for Fair Grounds on March 21, as the G2 Louisiana Derby will be staged. A distance of 1 3/16 miles will be covered, with the winner being awarded 100 qualifying points. Find the odds and our Louisiana Derby picks here.
Tampa Bay Derby: How to Watch
- When: Saturday, March 21, 2026 @ 6:42 PM ET
- Where: Fair Grounds, Louisiana
- How to Watch: FanDuel TV
Louisiana Derby Odds
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| Chip Honcho | +300 |
| Golden Tempo | +300 |
| Emerging Market | +350 |
| Blacksmith | +700 |
| Easterly | +900 |
| Autobahn | +1200 |
| Pavlovian | +1200 |
| Other Selections | +1500 & Bigger |
Race Information & Records
| Stat | Information |
|---|---|
| Race Distance | 1 3/16 Miles |
| Purse | $1,000,000 |
| Most Successful Trainer | Todd Pletcher, Steven Asmussen (5) |
| Most Successful Jockey | Pat Day (5) |
| Kentucky Derby Qualifying Points | 100-50-25-15-10 |
ALSO SEE: Goodyear 400 Picks, Odds & Preview (Mar 22)
Louisiana Derby: Recent Winners
| Year | Horse | Jockey | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Tiztastic | Joel Rosario | Steven Asmussen |
| 2024 | Catching Freedom | Flavien Prat | Brad Cox |
| 2023 | Kingsbarns | Flavien Prat | Todd Pletcher |
| 2022 | Epicenter | Joel Rosario | Steven Asmussen |
Race Preview
Clues ahead of the 2026 Kentucky Derby will be on offer at Fair Grounds this weekend, as the first 100-point qualifying race is staged in the form of the G2 Louisiana Derby. Two previous winners of the race have later landed the honors at Churchill Downs, and a talented field this weekend makes for a fascinating contest.
Chip Honcho is the obvious starting point. Steven Asmussen typically sends one of his leading Derby contenders to this race, and the three-year-old clearly holds strong form claims after finishing a close second behind Paladin in the G2 Risen Star. Previous winner at the track when landing the Gun Runner Stakes.
Golden Tempo beat Chip Honcho well when landing the G3 Lecomte Stakes on his return for trainer Cherie DeVaux. However, he underperformed last time when only third in the G2 Risen Star, finishing nearly six lengths behind his re-opposing rival. A bounce back required.
Emerging Market gives Chad Brown a good chance to win the race for the first time. The three-year-old son of Candy Ride was a good winner over a mile on debut, beating the highly-regarded Powershift by nearly a length. However, that form can be questioned after the runner-up only finished sixth in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Bob Baffert sends Blacksmith to Fair Grounds this weekend, but his weakness in the market would be alarming. Was the runner-up in the Los Alamitos Futurity and took five attempts to break his maiden. Not the kind of profile you would be willing to trust in this competitive heat.
Louisiana Derby Picks
The two runners from the G2 Risen Star look like the class angle this weekend, with the narrow edge given to Golden Tempo to respond. Autobahn could be an interesting Exotic angle. The son of Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist finally broke his maiden when stepping up in distance at Gulfstream in February, and he looks well-bred to develop as the season progresses.
Free Pick:
- Trifecta Box: Autobahn/Chip Honcho/Golden Tempo
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