Aston Villa vs. Arsenal Picks, Odds, and EPL Betting Analysis — Gunners to Cover the Spread Against Misfiring Villa?

• When: Monday, August 31, 2026. 3:00 PM ET
• Where: Villa Park, Birmingham, England
• How to Watch: NBC

Match Result	Odds
Aston Villa	+542
The Draw	+348
Arsenal	-191
Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5	-124/+101

Aston Villa vs. Arsenal EPL Preview

Arsenal will have their sights set on back-to-back wins to start the 2026-27 Premier League season this weekend when they travel to Aston Villa. The Gunners will be clear favorites at the best soccer betting sites, especially considering Villa’s poor start to the new campaign.

ALSO SEE: Premier League 2026/27: Our Experts Make Their Winner, Relegation, and Top Scorer Picks

Villa Struggling After Losing Many Key Players This Summer

It has been a disappointing start to the Aston Villa rebuild under Unai Emery, but a strong start to the campaign was always unlikely after losing key players such as Morgan Rogers, Youri Tielemans, and Lucas Digne. Further frustration has been handed to the Villa boss, with Ollie Watkins closing in on a move to Saudi Arabia.

Villa were well below their usual standards in the opening game of the season, as they were thumped 4-0 by Brighton. New signing Joao Gomes struggled on his debut for the club, as he was sent off in the opening 45 minutes.

Villa failed to register a single shot on target in that defeat, and Emi Buendia could once again be forced to play in an unusual number nine role. There is a sense that while incomings may be on their way, things could get worse before they get better for Emery’s Villa.

Likely Lineup:

(4-2-3-1) Bizot (GK); Cash, Torres, Lindelof, Maatsen; Kamara, Barkley; McGinn, Hemmings, Bailey; Buendia

Gunners Make Smooth Start to Title Defense

Arsenal faced no such issues in their opening game of the Premier League season, as the reigning champions cruised to a 3-0 home win against Coventry City. There were welcome first-team returns for Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka, with both scoring in the dominant showing.

The Gunners will still have key defensive injuries this weekend, with both William Saliba and Jurrien Timber unlikely to return until October. Therefore, there could be an Arsenal debut for Ezri Konsa, who joined the Gunners from Aston Villa last week.

Arsenal will take plenty of confidence from their record on the road last season, as they won eleven of their 19 fixtures away from the Emirates Stadium, scoring an impressive average of 1.58 goals per game.

Likely Lineup:

(4-2-3-1) Raya (GK); White, Konsa, Gabriel, Calafiori; Rice, Lewis-Skelly; Saka, Odegaard, Tzolis; Havertz

Head-to-Head Stats

• Arsenal have won 31 of their 56 EPL encounters against Aston Villa.
• Villa have won just six of their previous 28 fixtures against the Gunners at Villa Park.
• Arsenal have won just once in their last three against Villa.

Aston Villa vs. Arsenal EPL Picks

Aston Villa fans will need to be patient this season, as there is likely no easy fix to the struggles that they have endured. This will be a challenging night for the hosts, and Arsenal have won by at least two goals in three of the previous five encounters. Therefore, the spread could prove to be the value play when making picks on Monday.

• Arsenal (-1) (-115)