Expert prediction
Florida Derby Picks, Odds & Preview (Mar 28)
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
One of the most important races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby is set for Gulfstream Park on March 28, as the G1 Florida Derby is staged. The race could have a big impact on the Derby betting, but who will win the key prep? Find our picks here.
Florida Derby: How to Watch
- When: Saturday, March 28, 2026 @ 6:42 PM ET
- Where: Gulfstream Park, Florida
- How to Watch: FanDuel TV
Florida Derby Odds
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| Chief Wallabee | +180 |
| Commandment | +210 |
| Nearly | +225 |
| The Puma | +550 |
| Wayne’s Law | +1600 |
| Timeless Victory | +4000 |
| Albus | +8000 |
| Gregarious | +15000 |
Race Information & Records
| Stat | Information |
|---|---|
| Race Distance | 1 1/8 Miles |
| Purse | $1,000,000 |
| Most Successful Trainer | Todd Pletcher (8) |
| Most Successful Jockey | John Velazquez (6) |
| Kentucky Derby Qualifying Points | 100-50-25-15-10 |
ALSO SEE: Goodyear 400 Picks, Odds & Preview (Mar 22)
Florida Derby: Recent Winners
| Year | Winner | Jockey | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Tappan Street | Luiz Saez | Brad Cox |
| 2024 | Fierceness | John Velazquez | Todd Pletcher |
| 2023 | Forte | Irad Ortiz | Todd Pletcher |
| 2022 | White Abarrio | Tyler Gaffalione | Saffie Joseph |
Race Preview
A staggering 21 winners of the Florida Derby have subsequently landed at least one victory in the Triple Crown, with Always Dreaming becoming the most recent winner of the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby. Sovereignty was second in last year’s race before landing success at Churchill Downs.
The current Kentucky Derby favorite headlines the betting this weekend, as Chief Wallabee bids to enhance his Triple Crown credentials. The three-year-old was narrowly beaten by Commandment when coming from off the pace in the G2 Fountain of Youth. Expect that form to be reversed now up in distance.
Nearly represents the dominant connections in this race, with the Todd Pletcher runner being the mount of John Velazquez. The three-year-old has won three from four career starts, and was a dominant winner of the G3 Holy Bull in late January, easily stretching clear to win by nearly six lengths.
The Puma is likely to be underestimated for the Gustavo Delgado team this weekend. The three-year-old son of Essential Quality is yet to finish outside of the first three in three career starts. Was second behind Chief Wallabee on debut, before stepping up his form to land the G2 Tampa Bay Derby, beating Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes victory Further Ado in the process. Substance to his form, and should be respected.
Timeless Victory should be respected as an outsider this weekend. The three-year-old has won three from six career starts, and was a winner over course and distance by six lengths in lesser company in March. Handles the track and thrives over this distance, making him an interesting play for Exotics.
Florida Derby Picks
I’m a massive fan of Chief Wallabee, and he is already my idea of the Kentucky Derby winner. The three-year-old steps up in distance this weekend, and his fast-finishing style will be perfectly suited to picking off his rivals in the closing stages to make a statement and secure his berth in the field at Churchill Downs in May.
Free Pick:
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