Expert prediction
Rebel Stakes Picks, Odds & Preview (Mar 1)
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
An informative weekend of action on the Road to the Kentucky Derby rounds off at Oaklawn Park on March 1, as the G2 Rebel Stakes headlines the card in Hot Springs. Find the odds and picks for the final prep race before the Arkansas Derby here.
Rebel Stakes: How to Watch
- When: Sunday, March 1, 2026 @ 6:23 PM ET
- Where: Oaklawn Park, Hot Springs
- How to Watch: FanDuel TV
Rebel Stakes Odds
| Horse | Moneyline |
|---|---|
| Blackout Time | +150 |
| Litmus Test | +275 |
| Silent Tactic | +550 |
| Class President | +800 |
| Soldier N Diplomat | +1000 |
| Strategic Risk | +1200 |
| Rancho Santa Fe | +2000 |
| Other Selections | +5000 & Bigger |
Race Information & Records
| Stat | Information |
|---|---|
| Race Distance | 1 1/16 Miles |
| Purse | $1,000,000 |
| Most Successful Trainer | Bob Baffert (8) |
| Most Successful Jockey | Mike Smith (5) |
| Kentucky Derby Qualifying Points | 50-25-15-10-5 |
ALSO SEE: DuraMAX Grand Prix Picks, Odds & Preview (Mar 1)
Rebel Stakes: Recent Winners
| Year | Horse | Jockey | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Coal Battle | Juan Vargas | Lonnie Briley |
| 2024 | Timberlake | Cristian Torres | Brad Cox |
| 2023 | Confidence Game | James Graham | Keith Desormeaux |
| 2022 | Un Ojo | Ramos Vazquez | Ricky Courville |
Race Preview
The G2 Rebel Stakes will be a notable prep on the route to the Kentucky Derby, with 14 high-quality runners having landed success in this weekend’s race, as well as the key prep held at Oaklawn next month- the Arkansas Derby.
Bob Baffert’s dominant record in this race deserves respect, while he typically sends one of his best to this race, as reflected by his previous winners, including the likes of American Pharaoh and Lookin at Lucky.
Litmus Test is Baffert’s chance in this year’s renewal. The three-year-old has won twice from five career starts, and was excellent at the end of last year when landing the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity. Eye-catching on speed figures, and well worth his spot in the market.
However, the betting is likely to be headlined by Kenneth McPeek-trained Blackout Time. The three-year-old by Not The Time has won once from three career starts, and is yet to finish outside of the first three. Was second in the G1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity on his final start as a juvenile.
Mark Casse-trained Silent Tactic should arguably be a leading chance this weekend after winning the G3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn on his last start. That gives him the form edge over reappearing rivals such as Soldier N Diplomat and Rancho Santa Fe.
Rebel Stakes Picks
At the prices, Litmus Test could be the standout play. Baffert’s dominant record in the race speaks for itself. Meanwhile, the selection’s run behind Ted Noffey in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile shows his class, and this track and trip should suit this son of Nyquist.
Free Pick:
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