Expert prediction
NFL Picks Against the Spread: Week 9 Expert ATS Picks and Best Bets
Pick rationale
Analysis & key factors
Best pick against the spread: Bears -5.5 (now -6)
Second ATS pick: Jaguars -7.5 (won, 33-10)
Best underdog ATS pick: Cardinals +11.5 (now +8.5)
Claim Up to $250 Free Bet at BetOnlineBetting against the spread is the most popular way to bet on the NFL, and it’s where finding an edge matters most. Every week of the season, our NFL experts break down the full slate and give a pick against the spread for every game, along with our strongest ATS plays of the week.
This page is updated every week once the new lines are posted, so check back before kickoff for our latest NFL picks against the spread.
NFL Week 9 Picks Against the Spread
Our top play of Week 9 is the Bears -5.5 at home to a Buccaneers team whose last two wins owed more to luck than quality. Jacksonville heads to Baltimore to face a Ravens team without two-time MVP Lamar Jackson, and probably without backup Tyler Huntley as well. Our best underdog pick is the Cardinals, who have 11.5 points to work with in Seattle against the Super Bowl champion Seahawks.
Update, Nov 6: One down, two to go. The Jaguars beat the Ravens 33-10 on Thursday night, covering our -7.5 with room to spare. Our underdog pick has also moved our way: Sam Darnold has been ruled out for Seattle, and the Cardinals are now +8.5, three points shorter than the +11.5 we took. The Bears are -6. Our picks are graded at the number we published.
Best NFL Picks Against the Spread This Week
Buccaneers vs Bears -5.5: Chicago to Expose Tampa Bay’s Lucky Wins
Tampa Bay has beaten the Falcons 16-0 and the Panthers 43-13. On paper, those look like statement wins, but we’re not convinced. The Panthers collapsed at home, and the win over the Falcons came in water polo conditions that the Bucs simply handled better. That should all be exposed at Soldier Field, where Chicago boasts the NFL’s eighth-ranked offense and ninth-ranked defense against an opponent that has been all over the place this season. It’s the perfect spot for an ATS bet.
Line update (Nov 6): Chicago is -6 (-111). We’re sticking with the Bears, and the extra half-point doesn’t change the case.
Jaguars -7.5 vs Ravens: Baltimore Can’t Match Jacksonville Without Lamar
Jacksonville’s 42-7 demolition of the Colts was impressive, even if Indianapolis had already been falling apart for weeks. With a defense allowing just 17.3 points per game and a top-five offense, the Jaguars have more than enough to beat a Ravens team without Lamar Jackson, and probably without Tyler Huntley too. That would leave Jesse Minter turning to third-string quarterback Joe Fagnano, who should be an easy target for Jacksonville’s pass rush, with reports that he’s also carrying an injury.
Result: Jaguars 33-10, pick won. Fagnano did start, and Jacksonville picked him off twice in his first NFL start. Trevor Lawrence threw a 50-yard touchdown to Parker Washington, and the Jaguars covered at both -7.5 and -10.
Cardinals +11.5 vs Seahawks: Arizona’s Nothing-to-Lose Mentality
Why back Arizona here? Jacoby Brissett has been benched, and Gardner Minshew is now the starter. Minshew always plays with momentum, and the Cardinals have played that way all season, going all-out when trailing because they have nothing to lose. They lost 31-7 to Seattle at home in Week 2, but this game should look very different from the one in September.
Line update (Nov 6): Sam Darnold has been ruled out with a quad injury, and Drew Lock, who’s carrying an elbow issue of his own, starts for Seattle. Arizona is now +8.5 (-108). We’re sticking with the Cardinals, and the 11.5 points we took look even more generous now.
Odds from BetOnline as of Nov 6
See our NFL Week 9 picks against the spread for every game.
How NFL Picks Against the Spread Work
The point spread levels the playing field between two teams. The favorite has points taken away from its final score, and the underdog has points added. If the Chiefs are -3.5 against the Raiders, Kansas City needs to win by four or more for a Chiefs bet to cash. A bet on the Raiders at +3.5 wins if Las Vegas wins outright or loses by three or fewer.
Most spreads are priced at -110, meaning you risk $110 to win $100. Because of that built-in cut, you need to win around 52.4% of your bets against the spread just to break even, which is why picking the right side matters so much.
Some margins matter more than others. NFL games are decided by exactly three or seven points more often than by any other margin, so these are known as key numbers. That’s why half-points matter: getting +3.5 instead of +2.5 covers you in every three-point loss. When a spread is a whole number, like -3, a game that lands exactly on it is a push, and your stake is refunded.
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