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Expert prediction

UEFA Nations League: Italy vs. Germany Odds, Preview, and Picks (Mar 20)

  • Alex Dudley
  • Mar 17, 2025 at 7:04 AM EDT

Pick rationale

Analysis & key factors

Two of the most notable heavyweights in Europe will collide in the UEFA Nations League quarterfinals this week, but only Italy or Germany will gain progression through to the next round of the competition. The increased pressure in the first leg will be on the Italians as they will have home field advantage at San Siro.


How To Watch

  • When: Thursday, March 20, 2025, at 2:45 PM ET
  • Where: San Siro, Milan, Italy
  • How To Watch: Fox Sports

Odds

Match ResultOdds
Italy+175
Draw+210
Germany+175

Match Preview

There appears to be a long road back to the top of global soccer for Italy, but a positive run in the Nations League this year could highlight that they may have an increased chance at the World Cup next summer.

Positives can be taken from their performances in the opening round of the competition, as they finished second in Group A2 based on goal difference behind France. But, they did record wins in four of their six matches. Their only defeat was suffered at the hands of the French.

READ More: UEFA Nations League: Netherlands vs. Spain Odds, Preview, and Picks (Mar 20)

Germany find themselves in a very similar position to their rivals this week, as they will be aiming to build momentum ahead of next summer’s World Cup. Germany were very strong in the opening round of the Nations League, winning four of their six matches, and avoiding defeat in all fixtures during their Group A3 campaign.

In fact, their strong form dates back to last summer, as they enjoyed an excellent run to the last eight of their home EUROs before suffering elimination at the hands of Spain in the quarterfinals. There is still hope that their young squad is still improving, and that will give them confidence ahead of next year’s World Cup.


Italy vs. Germany Picks

This should be a fascinating quarterfinal showdown in the Nations League, and cases can be made for both sides to progress to the last four. However, we believe that Germany are further along their progression, meaning that we foresee them making it through over two legs against Italy.

Free Pick:

  • Germany

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