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Expert prediction

National Bank Open: Alex de Minaur vs. Ben Shelton Picks, Odds, and Preview (Aug 5)

  • Alex Dudley
  • Aug 4, 2025 at 6:12 AM EDT

Pick rationale

Analysis & key factors

The quarterfinals at the National Bank Open conclude with a fascinating clash between two players seeded inside the top ten. Australian Alex de Minaur has been in excellent form in Canada this summer, but he will be pushed to his limit by American star Ben Shelton on Tuesday. Find the odds and picks here.


How To Watch

  • When: Tuesday, August 5, 2025 at TBD
  • Where: Sobeys Stadium, Toronto, Canada
  • How To Watch: Tennis Channel

Alex de Minaur vs. Ben Shelton Odds

PlayerOdds
Alex de Minaur-175
Ben Shelton+148

Head-to-Head Record

This week’s quarterfinal clash between Alex de Minaur and Ben Shelton will be the first time that the two stars have collided on the ATP Tour.


Match Preview

One of the major prep events before the start of the US Open later this year continues on Tuesday. Alex de Minaur and Ben Shelton will both be dark horse contenders for Grand Slam glory this year, and both will see this week’s clash as an opportunity to build momentum ahead of the start of the Slam in New York.

De Minaur is a ten-time winner on the ATP Tour, and he has reached the quarterfinals in five previous Grand Slam events. His form at the National Bank Open this year has been very reliable, and he looked in outstanding condition when beating Frances Tiafoe in the previous round. The Australian won 77% of the points on his first serve, and converted on half of his ten break point opportunities.

READ More: The Open Championship Odds, Preview, and Picks (2025)

Ben Shelton is widely considered to be one of the fastest growing U.S. stars in the world of tennis, and expectations will be high at the US Open after previously reaching the semi-final stage at the Australian Open earlier this year. Shelton currently sits in a career-best seventh in the world rankings, and he has excelled in his three matches at the National Bank Open.

However, the American has needed all three sets in each of the last two rounds. In the previous round, Shelton narrowly avoided a shock exit at the hands of Flavio Cobolli, coming through in the deciding tie break. Shelton registered an impressive 12 aces, but only won 71% of the points on his first serve.


Alex de Minaur vs. Ben Shelton Picks

Shelton has battled to this point of the competition, but he is yet to piece together a strong performance from start to finish. That means that he could be vulnerable against a rival in his best form of the year. Due to that, the preference is for De Minaur to secure his spot in the final four.

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