Horse Racing Picks: Sam F. Davis Stakes Prediction, Preview, and Odds (Feb 10)

• Sam F. Davis Stakes is staged at Tampa Bay Downs this weekend
• This race will be staged across 1 1/16 miles, with the winner earning points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby

Kentucky Derby prep action is staged at Tampa Bay Downs this weekend, as a big field will go to post for the Sam F. Davis Stakes. This Grade 3 will cover a distance of 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, and it could produce a number of runners that will line up in the opening leg of the Triple Crown.

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Schedule and How To Watch

• When: Saturday, February 10, 2024 at 5:15 PM ET
• Where: Tampa Bay Downs, Florida
• How To Watch: FanDuel TV

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Sam F. Davis Odds

Horse	Odds
Change of Command	+400
Tireless	+500
Agate Road	+600
Copper Tax	+600
West Saratoga	+750
Patriot Spirit	+800
Crazy Mason	+900
Fulmineo	+1000

Latest odds taken from an offshore sportsbook.

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Race Preview

The Sam F. Davis Stakes is the key prep race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby this weekend, with Tampa Bay Downs playing host to the wide open contest. A number of winners have followed up success in this race by winning the Tampa Bay Derby, including most recently, Classic Causeway in 2022.

Todd Pletcher is the leading trainer in this race with seven victories, while John Velazquez has ridden the most winners with four. One of Pletcher’s runners this weekend is Tireless, who reverts to dirt after a disappointing period on the turf last year. His most likely winner comes in the form of Agate Road, who will be Jose Ortiz’s ride.

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Saturday is the G3 $250,000 🏆 Sam F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs.@ChristinaFDTV gives out her pick for the @SpendthriftFarm 🌹 @KentuckyDerby prep.

📺 Watch our on-site coverage on @FanDuelTV.
💵 Wager on https://t.co/D7Oyk4P0QQ. pic.twitter.com/D7pav9GRxy

— FanDuel Racing (Formerly TVG) (@FanDuel_Racing) February 8, 2024

The three-year-old is another that returns to the dirt after running creditably on the turf last year. He was second on the grass on his previous start in the Dania Beach over a mile, while his fifth in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf is an eye-catching piece of form. However, questions remain over his ability on the dirt.

Change Of Command will be a popular selection for exotics players for trainer Claude McGaughey. The three-year-old has already won over 1 1/16 miles on the dirt, while he set a quick speed figure of 85 when winning over seven furlongs at Gulfstream over seven furlongs late last year. Copper Tax could also have leading claims after finishing fifth in the G2 Remsen Stakes on his previous appearance.

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Sam F. Davis Stakes Prediction

A number of runners come into this race with decent claims, and we would be keen to use Change of Command and Agate Road in exotics. However, our main win play is West Saratoga. The three-year-old for Larry Demeritte is the most experienced runner in this field, and he was a fine winner of the G3 Iroquois last year. He likely needed the run on his return to action when second in the Pasco Stakes.

Free Picks:

• Win:
• Exacta Box: (6) Agate Road/ (7) Copper Tax/ (9) Change of Command/ (10) West Saratoga