Kentucky Derby Odds, Preview, and Picks (May 3)

One of the biggest sporting events in the U.S. is set for this Saturday, as the Triple Crown gets underway at Churchill Downs. Horses aged three will compete over 1 1/4 miles at the track, as they bid to achieve sporting immortality. You can find the latest Kentucky Derby odds and our picks here.

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How To Watch

• When: Saturday, May 3, 2025, at 6:57 PM ET
• Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky
• How To Watch: NBC

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Odds

Horse	Odds
Journalism	+275
Sovereignity	+650
Luxor Cafe	+900
Sandman	+1000
Burnham Square	+1200
Baeza	+1400
Final Gambit	+1600
Rodriguez	+1600
Citizen Bull	+2000
Other Selections	+2000 & Bigger

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Event Preview

The opening leg of the Triple Crown is set for Churchill Downs on Saturday, as the world-famous Kentucky Derby will be staged. A talented crop of runners will go to post for the 151st Derby, with contenders aiming to join the likes of Secretariat, Seattle Slew, and American Pharoah on the roll of honor.

Journalism is likely to be a red-hot favorite for the team of Michael McCarthy and Umberto Rispoli after landing the G1 Santa Anita Derby impressively, despite almost everything going wrong in-running. However, I have huge concerns surrounding his style being adapted to a big-fielded Derby.

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Sovereignty was a one-time Derby favorite for William Mott, but he could only take second in the G1 Florida Derby last time out. He didn’t have any real excuses on that day at Gulfstream, and he will have a wide draw to contend with at Churchill Downs.

Burnham Square was an impressive winner of the Florida Derby, and he could feasibly be a serious contender at a bigger price. Sandman also looks as though the extra distance should suit his chances after a very impressive victory in the G1 Arkansas Derby.

Bob Baffert’s return to the race will make headlines this year, and his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion, Citizen Bull, arrives at Churchill Downs with questions to answer. Rodriguez also has a live chance, but a front-running style doesn’t bode well for Derby success.

Japan will once again have a very strong hand at Churchill Downs this year, and Luxor Cafe looks to be the pick of the raiders. The three-year-old has twice beaten subsequent UAE Derby winner and reappearing rival Admire Daytona. It remains to be seen how strong that form is, but he has looked incredibly impressive to this point.

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Kentucky Derby Picks

I have reservations about the favorite in the race, and there are two at bigger prices that could be worth taking a chance on. Final Gambit, for Brad Cox, won very impressively on the all-weather when landing the Jeff Ruby, despite falling out of the gates and giving himself a mountain to climb.

His finishing effort suggests that the Derby trip could be tailor-made for him. Coal Battle could also be the forgotten horse. The Lonnie Briley runner was disappointing in the G1 Arkansas Derby, but looked incredibly progressive before then when landing the Smarty Jones and G2 Rebel.

There would be no surprises to see him get back on track with his experience in bigger fields.

Free Pick:

• Final Gambit
• Coal Battle