Skip to content

Expert prediction

Pennsylvania Derby Picks, Odds, Betting Preview, and Insights (Sep 19)

  • Alex Dudley
  • Sep 14, 2026 at 6:50 AM EDT

Pick rationale

Analysis & key factors

  • When: Saturday, September 19, 2026 @ 5:48 PM ET
  • Where: Parx Racing, Pennsylvania, USA
  • How to Watch: FanDuel TV

One of the biggest weekends of horse racing of the year is set for Parx Racing and Casino this weekend, with two Grade Ones featuring on the 15-race card. The action is headlined by the G1 Pennsylvania Derby, which could offer clues in terms of the three-year-old pecking order ahead of the Breeders’ Cup.  

Further Ado will be the one to beat for the Brad Cox team based on the odds at the best horse racing betting sites, but could there be a value play to consider when making Pennsylvania Derby picks?

Pennsylvania Derby Odds

Horse (Stall)Odds
Zihnal (1)+800
Iron Honor (2)+450
Our Moneyman (3)+1200
Igniter (4)+2000
Talk To Me Jimmy (5)+1400
The Puma (6)+650
Further Ado (7)+225
Freedom’s Echo (8)+4000
Sassmaster (9)+800
Micanopy (10)+900
Ponder And Dream (11)+1200

Latest odds taken from an Offshore Sportsbook. BetOnline markets open on the day of the race.

Race Information & Records

StatInformation
Race Distance1 1/8 Miles
Purse$1,000,000
Most Successful TrainerBob Baffert (4)
Most Successful JockeyJoe Bravo, Mike Smith (3)

ALSO SEE: Presidents Cup Picks, Odds & Betting Preview (Sep 24-27)

Pennsylvania Derby: Recent Winners

  • 2025– Baeza (Hector Berrios/John Shirreffs)
  • 2024– Seize The Grey (Jamie Torres/D. Wayne Lukas)
  • 2023– Saudi Crown (Florent Geroux/Brad Cox)
  • 2022– Taiba (Mike Smith/Bob Baffert)
  • 2021– Hot Rod Charlie (Flavien Prat/Doug O’Neill)

Pennsylvania Derby: Betting Preview

The G1 Pennsylvania Derby is traditionally an informative race, which has been won by some smart types in recent years, including Preakness Stakes victor Seize The Grey in 2024. An interesting crop of three-year-old runners will take their chance this year.

Further Ado (Flavien Prat/Brad Cox) looks like the one to beat based on the odds. The three-year-old looked very exciting when winning the G1 Blue Grass in April, before regressing when only eleventh in the G1 Kentucky Derby. Has since bounced back to win the G3 Matt Winn, while his fifth in the G1 Haskell was a reliable run.

However, based on that form line alone, Iron Honor (Jose Ortiz/Chad Brown) should be a shorter price. The three-year-old posted a career-best Speed Figure of 124 when third in the G1 Haskell, finishing two lengths clear of Further Ado. Sloppy ground likely suited that day, but he has also posted solid efforts on faster ground, including a notable unlucky second in the G1 Preakness behind Napoleon Solo.

The Puma (Javier Castellano/Gustavo Delgado) has likely achieved more in his career to this point than his market rivals. The three-year-old missed the Derby, but was an encouraging fourth after the layoff in the G1 Haskell. Performed to an inferior rating of 114 when fourth in the G1 Travers last time. Holds a win over Further Ado after landing the G3 Tampa Bay Derby earlier this season, while his second in the G1 Florida Derby also produced a Speed Figure of 122.

Zihnal (1st G3 West Virginia Derby), Our Moneyman (2nd G3 Indiana Derby), and Micanopy (1st Listed Smarty Jones) all bring interesting new form to the table, but each will need to show rapid improvement to compete against proven Graded caliber horses this weekend.

Sassmaster (Tyler Gaffalione/Todd Pletcher) is of interest for a respected stable on this step up in graded after posting 119 and 116 speed figures in maiden special weight and allowance races, respectively. 

Pennsylvania Derby Picks

Further Ado has proven to be slightly too inconsistent to trust at such a short price. Therefore, Iron Honor looks to be more reliable. The Chad Brown runner has form on sloppy and quick ground, and has bounced back well since a no-show in the G2 Wood Memorial. He was an unlucky loser in the G1 Preakness when only narrowly denied by Napoleon Solo, before finishing ahead of the re-opposing Further Ado in the G1 Haskell when posting a career-best speed figure. The Nyquist colt could still be improving as he is more lightly raced compared to much of this field.

Free Pick:

Parx Racing Picks for September 19

RacePick
R1 – Maiden Special WeightOlympic Dreamer
R2 – Allowance Optional ClaimingNogradi
R3 – Maiden Special WeightDigital Signal
R4 – Starter Optional ClaimingVanilla
R5 – Starter Optional ClaimingBand Camp
R6 – Allowance Optional ClaimingBellanova
R7 – Philly Special StakesPronghorn
R8 – Stable Recovery StakesVibe
R9 – Liberty Bell StakesHaulin Ice
R10 – Greenwood Cup StakesSan Siro
R11 – Parx Dirt Mile StakesSaudi Crown
R12 – G2 Gallant Bob StakesRyan’s Run
R13 – G1 Cotillion StakesAlways A Runner
R14 – G1 Pennsylvania DerbySEE ABOVE
R15 – Allowance Optional ClaimingHigher Sense

Horse Racing

More Predictions

Horse Racing Insight

Woodbine Picks Today: Best Bets for Saturday, Nov 7

Best bet: Lupa, Race 7 (+100 ML) Value pick: Ultimate Authority, Race 10 (+800 ML) Claim Your $25 Risk-Free Horse Racing Bet at BetOnline Every race day at Woodbine, we handicap the full card and give you a pick in every race, plus a best bet and a value selection the morning line might have […]

Alex Dudley 4 min read

Horse Racing Insight

Belmont Park Picks Today: Best Bets for Saturday, Nov 7

Best bet: Ted Noffey, Race 8 (+160) Value pick: Iron Orchard, Race 9 (+1200) Claim Your $25 Risk-Free Horse Racing Bet at BetOnline A busy afternoon of horse racing action at Belmont Park is set for Saturday, November 7, with four stakes races on the ten-race program. We have handicapped all races at Belmont Park […]

Alex Dudley 5 min read

Horse Racing Insight

Del Mar Picks Today: Best Bets for Friday, Nov 6

Best bet: Jodi Bear, Race 6 (+300 ML) Value pick: Private Gem, Race 2 (+300 ML) Claim Your $25 Risk-Free Horse Racing Bet at BetOnline Whether it’s the summer meet or the fall meet, Del Mar always brings big fields and plenty of turf racing, and that means value for anyone willing to do the […]

Alex Dudley 4 min read

Horse Racing Insight

Churchill Downs Picks Today: Best Bets for Saturday, Nov 7

Best bet: Lambeth, Race 8 (+180 ML) Value pick: Poster, Race 6 (+300 ML) Claim Your $25 Risk-Free Horse Racing Bet at BetOnline Every race day at Churchill Downs, we handicap the full card and give you a pick in every race, along with our best bets and the horses we think the morning line […]

Alex Dudley 4 min read

Horse Racing Insight

Horse Racing Predictions Today: Best Bets for Churchill Downs, Charles Town, Parx and Horseshoe Indianapolis (Nov 4)

Best pick: Stanka (Horseshoe Indianapolis, Race 2) +160 Best value pick: Massachusetts (Churchill Downs, Race 7) +1000 Claim Your $25 Risk-Free Horse Racing Bet at BetOnline The dust may have settled on the 2026 Breeders’ Cup, but the horse racing action keeps coming thick and fast. Wednesday brings a 10-race card at Churchill Downs, while […]

Alex Dudley 6 min read