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Expert prediction

Horse Racing Picks: Pennsylvania Derby Prediction, Preview, and Odds (Sep 23)

  • Alex Dudley
  • Sep 22, 2023 at 3:31 AM EDT

Pick rationale

Analysis & key factors

  • Pennsylvania Derby takes place at Parx Racing this weekend
  • Horses aged three will compete over 1.125 miles in the Grade 1

Fascinating horse racing takes place at Parx this Saturday, as horses aged three will compete in the Pennsylvania Derby. It is one of the last races of the season that restrict horses aged three from competing in open-age company, and there is a huge purse of $1 million available.


Schedule and How To Watch

  • When: Saturday, September 23, 2023 at 6:10 p.m. ET
  • Where: Parx Racing, Pennsylvania
  • How To Watch: FanDuel TV

Pennsylvania Derby Odds

HorseOdds
Reincarnate+300
Saudi Crown+350
Magic Tap+500
Scotland+600
Il Miracolo+800
Dreamlike+1000
Gilmore+1000
Daydreaming Boy+1200
West Coast Cowboy+1200
Crupi+1500
Modern Era+5000

Latest odds taken from an offshore sportsbook


Race Preview

One of the few Grade 1 races at Parx Racing is staged on Saturday, as the lucrative Pennsylvania Derby is staged. A field of eleven runners will go to post, and the majority have a fair chance of walking away with their share of the $1 million purse.

Bob Baffert has unleashed some solid contenders in this race throughout history, including 2022 winner Taiba. The trainer has the leading fancy this weekend in the form of Reincarnate, who will be the ride of J J Hernandez. The three-year-old was 13th in the G1 Kentucky Derby earlier in the season, but he returned to action in July with a 101 speed figure when winning the Los Alamitos Derby.

READ MORE: Canelo Alvarez vs Jermell Charlo Prediction, Preview, and Odds (Sept 30)

Saudi Crown is a fascinating runner for Brad Cox this weekend, and he could easily go off as the favorite at Parx. The three-year-old has held his own in competitive graded company throughout the season, most recently hitting a 109 speed rating when second in the G2 Jim Dandy. He has a prominent draw this weekend, and isn’t likely to be far away.

Magic Tap also can’t be ignored for trainer Steven Asmussen. He was excellent in allowance company at Saratoga last month, scoring a second career victory on his fourth attempt with a speed rating of 110. That run puts him bang there this weekend. Il Miracolo is also a leading chance. He won at Parx last month to land the G3 Smarty Jones, but whether he is a real Grade 1 contender remains unclear after his seventh in the G1 Belmont Stakes and sixth in the G1 Florida Derby.


Pennsylvania Derby Prediction

I’d be more than happy to take on Reincarnate this weekend, and Magic Tap could be a likely winner. However, a chance is taken on William Mott’s improving Scotland. The three-year-old was outclassed in a hot renewal of the G1 Travers, as he could only finish sixth.

But, he has won three from four before that start, which included an outstanding victory to score at Saratoga with a 107 speed figure in the Curlin Stakes. A bounce back could be likely this weekend.

Free Pick:

  • Exacta Box: (4) Magic Tap/ (5) Scotland/ (10) Il Miracolo

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