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Expert prediction

Kentucky Derby Exotics: Place, Show & Trifecta Picks

  • Alex Dudley
  • Apr 29, 2026 at 6:52 AM EDT

Pick rationale

Analysis & key factors

There are few betting occasions that can match the Kentucky Derby in terms of potential value on offer, with Exotics such as a Trifecta and a Superfecta potentially returning thousands.

That will be the dream outcome for many bettors this weekend at Churchill Downs, and you can find our standout plays for the Place, Show, and Trifecta options here. Meanwhile, our Kentucky Derby win picks can be found here.

Kentucky Derby Place Picks

The Place betting option will give gamblers a layer of insurance when making Kentucky Derby picks, as returns will be awarded if a selection finishes second. But, win market favorites such as Renegade, Further Ado, and Commandment will be extremely short when assessing the place picks.

Therefore, a runner such as The Puma could make appeal. The runner for Gustavo Delgado has already shown his battling qualities this season, outstaying Further Ado to land the G3 Tampa Bay Derby, before fighting to the line when only beaten a nose by Commandment in the G1 Florida Derby. He may lack the class to win the Derby, but he will likely be thereabouts.

Kentucky Derby Show Picks

We like a few Kentucky Derby longshots this year, but one that could be massively overpriced in the show betting is Cherie DeVaux-trained Golden Tempo. Many will see the 19-hole as a negative, but three winners of the race since 2012 have started from stall 18 or higher.

Golden Tempo is a son of Curlin, meaning that he will stay the Derby trip better than most, but his challenge will be coming late in the day as a deep stalker, meaning that luck in-running will be required.

On track, he showed his finishing speed in a slowly run G2 Louisiana Derby when third behind Emerging Market, but he could make up the length between the two with a faster pace expected this weekend.

ALSO SEE: Kentucky Derby Cheat Sheet: Runner-by-Runner Guide & Odds

Kentucky Derby Exotics: Trifecta Picks

The big money in the Kentucky Derby comes in the Exotics, but the unpredictability of the race could mean that it is smartest to avoid ‘keying’ a horse in any desired position.

As well as Golden Tempo for the reasons mentioned above, we are also keen on two-time Churchill Downs winner Incredibolt to run a good race for Riley Mott. The selection is currently +3000 in the win market, ensuring value if he finishes in the top three.

Commandment and Further Ado will be dangerous to leave off slips, while The Puma also shares form lines with re-opposing rivals that appear to hold the key for this weekend’s race.

Chief Wallabee is one of our main selections this weekend, and the fact that he will have a hot pace to run at this weekend could ensure that he turns the tables on The Puma and Commandment.

Kentucky Derby Exotics Picks:

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