Expert prediction
Chiefs vs Falcons Prediction: Odds, Spread and Best Bets for Week 10
The Kansas City Chiefs head to Atlanta in Week 10, and all eyes are on Patrick Mahomes’s right elbow. The three-time MVP had his arm bent backwards against the Jets on Sunday, walked off in pain at the end of the first half, and is set for imaging on Monday to rule out ligament damage. He came straight back and finished the 35-12 win, but his throwing motion looked different at times, and any news this week will move this line.
The Falcons have their own problems. At 3-6 and coming off a 34-17 defeat to the Bengals in Madrid, Atlanta’s offense has stalled, and Michael Penix Jr.’s turnovers keep costing them. This one sets up as a test of how much the Chiefs can lean on the rest of their roster if Mahomes isn’t at his best.
For our pick on every game this week, check out our NFL Week 10 picks against the spread.
Sunday, November 15 | 1:00 PM ET | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA | CBS
Chiefs vs Falcons Odds
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Chiefs | -3 | -183 | Over 45 |
| Atlanta Falcons | +3 | +160 | Under 45 |
Odds from BetOnline as of Monday, November 9. For the latest lines on every game, see our NFL odds page.
The Chiefs are 3-point road favorites, and the -183 moneyline gives them an implied win probability of around 65%. The market has already started to move. The spread has come down from -3.5, and the total has dropped from 46.5 to 45 since the lines opened, as bettors react to the uncertainty around Mahomes. If the imaging shows anything serious, expect this line to keep moving towards Atlanta.
Chiefs Odds and Form: More Than Just Mahomes
Kansas City’s 35-12 win over the Jets was a complete performance. Mahomes went 23 of 31 for 242 yards and two touchdowns despite the elbow, but the real story was how much help he got.
Kenneth Walker III has been a revelation since arriving in Kansas City. He ran for 102 yards on 18 carries against the Jets, scored on the ground, and caught two touchdown passes on top of that. With around 770 rushing yards on the season, he’s among the league’s top backs and has taken a lot of pressure off Mahomes. That matters even more this week if the quarterback isn’t fully fit.
The defense showed up too. The Chiefs racked up five sacks, two of them from Chris Jones, and kept the Jets out of the end zone all game. Kansas City has been one of the best scoring defenses in the league all season, allowing under 18 points a game.
The concern beyond Mahomes is at receiver. Xavier Worthy left the Jets game in the fourth quarter with a hamstring injury, and if he can’t go, Kansas City loses its most dangerous deep threat in a game where Mahomes might not be able to push the ball downfield anyway.
Falcons Odds and Form: Penix’s Turnovers Keep Hurting Atlanta
The Falcons were well beaten by the Bengals in Madrid. They kept it close early, leading 10-7 after the first quarter, but Cincinnati scored 17 unanswered points in the second quarter and never looked back. Michael Penix Jr. went 20 of 31 for 162 yards with a touchdown and an interception, and the passing game never got going.
Turnovers have been the issue all season. Penix has thrown six interceptions and lost a fumble, close to a turnover a game. That’s especially frustrating because Atlanta’s offensive line has been one of the best in the league at keeping him clean. These aren’t mistakes made under pressure; they’re decisions. The Falcons also convert only around 35% of their third downs, one of the worst rates in the league, and that keeps their defense on the field far too long.
The bright spot is Bijan Robinson, one of the most productive rushers in the NFL with around 780 yards. He ran for 100 yards and a touchdown in Madrid. He’s carrying more of the load now that backup Brian Robinson is on IR with a hamstring injury, though, and Atlanta no longer has the one-two punch that kept him fresh.
Chiefs vs Falcons Prediction: Best Bets
Chiefs Moneyline (-183)
We trust the Chiefs to win this game, even with question marks over Mahomes. Walker gives them a run game that can carry the offense, the defense is among the best in the league, and Atlanta’s turnover problems are exactly what this Kansas City defense feeds on. We prefer the moneyline to the -3 spread, though. If Mahomes is limited, the Chiefs may play conservatively with a lead, and a three-point win, the most common margin in the NFL, would only be a push on the spread.
Under 45
The total has already come down from 46.5, and we think it can go lower:
- Atlanta’s offense. The Falcons struggle on third down and keep turning the ball over, which kills drives before they reach the red zone.
- A run-heavy game plan from both sides. Kansas City can lean on Walker to protect Mahomes’s elbow, and Atlanta’s best offensive weapon is Bijan Robinson. Plenty of runs means a running clock and fewer possessions.
- The Chiefs with a lead. When they get ahead, Kansas City is happy to shorten the game with short passes and clock management, and that’s even more likely with an injured quarterback.
How to Bet on Chiefs vs Falcons
Want to back our Chiefs vs Falcons picks? The best offshore sportsbooks accept US players from almost every state and post odds on every NFL game as soon as the lines are released, with spreads, moneylines, and totals for this one all available well before Sunday.
- Pick a sportsbook from the table below and create your account.
- Make your first deposit and claim the welcome offer.
- Find the game under NFL in the sportsbook menu, listed with the Sunday 1 PM ET kickoffs.
- Choose your bet, whether that’s the Chiefs moneyline, the Under, or both, enter your stake, and confirm.
With Mahomes’s elbow being checked this week, keep an eye on the line. Injury news on a star quarterback can move a spread by a few points, so the price you lock in matters.
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