Expert prediction
Southwest Stakes Picks, Odds, and Betting Preview (Feb 6)
The rearranged Southwest Stakes will headline the card at Oaklawn Park on Feb 6. Important points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby will be up for grabs, with Bob Baffert saddling a couple of very interesting contenders. Find the odds and our picks here.
Southwest Stakes: How to Watch
- When: Friday, February 6, 2026 @ 5:40 PM ET
- Where: Aqueduct, New York
- How to Watch: FanDuel TV
Southwest Stakes: Race Information & Records
| Stat | Information |
|---|---|
| Race Distance | 1 1/16 Miles |
| Most Successful Trainer | Bob Baffert (6) |
| Most Successful Jockey | Larry Snyder, Rafael Bejarano, John Velazquez (3) |
| Purse | $1,000,000 |
| Kentucky Derby Qualifying Points | 20-10-6-4-2 |
Southwest Stakes Odds
| Horse | Odds |
|---|---|
| Litmus Test | +250 |
| D’Code | +300 |
| Buetane | +400 |
| Strategic Risk | +450 |
| Liberty National | +1000 |
| Soldier N Diplomat | +1200 |
| Other Selections | +2000 |
ALSO SEE: Super Bowl LX: Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots Preview, Odds, Picks (Feb 8)
Southwest Stakes: Recent Winners
| Year | Winning Horse | Winning Jockey | Winning Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Speed King | Rafael Bejarano | Ron Moquett |
| 2024 | Mystik Dan | Brian Hernandez Jr | Kenneth McPeek |
| 2023 | Arabian Knight | John Velazquez | Bob Baffert |
| 2022 | Newgrange | John Velazquez | Bob Baffert |
Race Preview
Before the full attention of bettors switches to assessing the Super Bowl betting markets, there will be potentially informative action on the Road to the Kentucky Derby at Oaklawn Park. The G3 Southwest Stakes has been won by some nice horses in recent years, including the 2024 Kentucky Derby champion, Mystik Dan.
The standout contender according to the odds is Bob Baffert-trained Litmus Test. The three-year-old was a standout juvenile, finishing within two lengths of Ted Noffey in the G1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He ended last season with a commanding win in the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity. May be just below the top grade, but could be good enough this weekend.
D’Code is one of the most interesting contenders this weekend for trainer H. Ray Ashford Jr. The three-year-old made a perfect start to life on track, winning with great ease at Oaklawn in December, setting a staggering 107 Equibase rating in the process.
Buetane is the second of the Baffert horses, and should be a standout stayer as a son of Tiz The Law. The three-year-old was eight lengths behind Ted Noffey in a Grade One last year, and will need to bounce back following a disappointing second behind So Happy in the G2 San Vicente Stakes. Untrustworthy.
Southwest Stakes Picks
There are some very nice types involved in this weekend’s Southwest Stakes, and cases can be made for plenty. However, at a price, Strategic Risk could be worth chancing.
The promising contender for Mark Casse has improved with every appearance, and was a staggering winner of the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn at the start of January. A repeat of that run will make him tough to beat.
Free Pick:
Horse Racing
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