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Expert prediction

NCAAF: #5 Ohio State vs #14 Iowa Preview, Odds, Picks (Oct 3)

  • Keith McCarthy
  • Oct 1, 2026 at 9:55 PM EDT

Pick rationale

Analysis & key factors

  • Ohio State took down Illinois last week, defeating them by a score a 42-19.
  • Iowa won a thriller against #18 Michigan on Saturday, beating them 20-19.
  • These two teams last faced off back on October 5, 2024, in a game that 35-7.
  • Iowa Hawkeyes +14.5

In this week’s Ohio State vs Iowa matchup, the Buckeyes and Hawkeyes face off in an undefeated battle. Ohio State is heavily favored, despite being on the road. They opened the season at #1 in the country but have since fallen to #5, aiming to rise back up.

Ohio State Seeks to Continue Rising

Ohio State bounced back to improve to 3-1 following their Week 2 loss to Texas. They’ve rolled past Illinois, entering this game against Iowa favored by a wide margin. The Buckeyes look like a CFP contender, but they’ve yet to prove themselves in games against ranked opposition, raising the stakes for this Iowa matchup. QB Julian Sayin and the offense will need to be at their absolute best in this one against Iowa’s stringent defense.

Iowa Seeking Major Upset Win

Iowa earned a huge win on the road against Michigan last week, returning home with a chance to knock off the other of the Big-10’s premier programs, a feat that the Hawkeyes have not accomplished since 1962. Doing so would vault a 5-0 Iowa team well into the top-10 and the top of the Big-10, also giving them a legitimate path to making the CFP. They will be relying on their defensive consistency to have a chance at winning this game.

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Ohio State vs Iowa NCAAF Pick

It’s extremely surprising to see Ohio State favored by more than two touchdowns in this game. They are currently 0-1 against ranked opponents, and while the Buckeyes are strong enough to defeat most, their offense is certain to face heavy opposition against one of the nation’s most consistent defenses in Iowa. Combined with playing this game on the road and it’s unlikely Ohio State wins in a blowout. Lock in Iowa to cover the 14.5-point spread here.

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NCAAF

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