AFC South 2023-24 Win Total Odds, and Prediction

By · August 15, 2023
  • The Jaguars won the AFC South last year, finishing 9-8 on the year
  • Houston came in last place again, this time posting a 3-13-3 record.
  • Jacksonville is considered the favorite to win the division again in 2023.

As the 2023-24 NFL season rapidly approaches, let’s evaluate the AFC South division, and project the final win totals of all four teams for this season. This division should improve wholly after a poor 2022 season.

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Jacksonville Jaguars

  • 2022 Record: 9-8
  • Odds to win AFC South: -155

Over/Under 9.5 Wins

Team Odds
Over -135
Under +105

The Jaguars surged to the top of the division in 2022, winning their first AFC South title in 5 years. 2nd-year QB Trevor Lawrence took a massive leap forward, stepping closer to his sky-high potential. RB Travis Etienne played all 17 games after missing his entire rookie season to an injury. With a solid defense and rapidly improving offense, Jacksonville should win a weak AFC South easily. I see them at 10 or 11 wins.


Tennessee Titans

  • 2022 Record: 7-10
  • Odds to win AFC South: +310

Over/Under 7.5 Wins

Team Odds
Under -130
Over +100

The Titans regressed quite a bit last season, going from the #1-seed in the AFC in 2021 to missing the playoffs at 7-10 in 2022. Things are only expected to get rockier for Tennessee, as they enter a rebuild. There will be a QB competition between veteran Ryan Tannehill and the more inexperienced Malik Willis and Will Levis. WR DeAndre Hopkins was brought in to aid them, but I see the Titans winning 6-7 games.

December 18, 2022 Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry 22 carries the ball during the NFL, American Football Herren, USA football game against the Los Angeles Chargers in Inglewood, California. Mandatory Photo Credit : /CSM Inglewood United States of America - ZUMAc04_ 20221218_zaf_c04_255 Copyright: xCharlesxBausx


Indianapolis Colts

  • 2022 Record: 4-12-1
  • Odds to win AFC South: +550

Over/Under 6.5 Wins

Team Odds
Over -135
Under +105

The Colts stumbled to just four wins last year, while struggling on offense. Losing star RB Jonathan Taylor to injury was detrimental, and it made things even tougher for an already struggling Matt Ryan. In 2023, Indianapolis will have a competition between Gardner Minshew and rookie Anthony Richardson for the starting QB spot. The Colts have a pretty solid roster, so I could see them winning 7-8 games this year.


Houston Texans

  • 2022 Record: 3-13-1
  • Odds to win AFC South: +1000

Over/Under 6.5 Wins

Team Odds
Over -130
Under +100

The Texans finished in the bottom-2 of the league last year, and last place in the AFC South. They made some big moves in the 2023 NFL Draft, selected QB C.J. Stroud at #2-overall, and then trading back up to select DL Will Anderson Jr. at #3-overall. These moves should help kickstart Houston’s rebuild, but they’ve still got quite a ways to go to get back in contention. I see them winning around 4-5 games this season.

NFL, American Football Herren, USA 2022: Browns vs Texans DEC 04 December 4, 2022: Houston Texans running back Dameon Pierce 31 carries the ball during a game between the Cleveland Browns and the Houston Texans in Houston, TX. ..Trask Smith/CSM/Sipa USACredit Image: Trask Smith/Cal Media/Sipa USA California USA NOxUSExINxGERMANY PUBLICATIONxINxALGxARGxAUTxBRNxBRAxCANxCHIxCHNxCOLxECUxEGYxGRExINDxIRIxIRQxISRxJORxKUWxLIBxLBAxMLTxMEXxMARxOMAxPERxQATxKSAxSUIxSYRxTUNxTURxUAExUKxVENxYEMxONLY Copyright: xCalxSportxMediax Editorial use only


Keith McCarthy
Contributor Keith McCarthy is an experienced sports analyst with a passion for predicting the outcomes of games spanning across sports such as football, basketball, baseball, and hockey, with a special expertise in college sports.

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