AFC West 2023-24 Win Total Odds, and Prediction

By · August 15, 2023
  • The Chiefs once again won the AFC West, finishing 14-3 on the year.
  • Denver had a disaster of a season, winding up in last place at 5-12.
  • Kansas City is expected to win their 8th straight AFC West title in 2023.

As the 2023-24 NFL season rapidly approaches, let’s evaluate the AFC West division, and project the final win totals of all four teams for this season. This should be a thoroughly competitive division again in 2023.

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Kansas City Chiefs

  • 2022 Record: 14-3
  • Odds to win AFC West: -180

Over/Under 11.5 Wins

Team Odds
Over -135
Under +105

The Chiefs won the Super Bowl last season, earning their 2nd title under QB Patrick Mahomes. Despite some voiced concern that Mahomes may take a minor step back without WR Tyreek Hill, he did the opposite, improving on his 2021 numbers, winning league both league MVP and Super Bowl MVP. With Mahomes at the helm, Kansas City should be a lock to win at least 12 games for the 6th straight season.


Los Angeles Chargers

  • 2022 Record: 10-7
  • Odds to win AFC West: +300

Over/Under 9.5 Wins

Team Odds
Over -115
Under -115

The Chargers finally cracked the playoff field last season, after a strong 10-7 finish. Unfortunately, they lost in the first round of the playoffs after their defense allowed Jacksonville to score 31 points. The return of DE Joey Bosa from injury will certainly help them out, but they still have a lot of holes. On the other hand, their offense is elite and full of talent. Los Angeles should be on their way to another 10-11 wins.

JACKSONVILLE, FL - JANUARY 14: Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert 10 throws a pass during the game between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Jacksonville Jaguars on January 14, 2023 at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Fl. Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire NFL, American Football Herren, USA JAN 14 AFC Wild Card Playoffs - Chargers at Jaguars Icon230114278888


Denver Broncos

  • 2022 Record: 5-12
  • Odds to win AFC West: +600

Over/Under 8.5 Wins

Team Odds
Over -125
Under -105

The Broncos had a catastrophic season last year, despite their offseason efforts to become competitive. They traded QB Drew Lock, TE Noah Fant, and four draft picks in the first two rounds to Seattle for Russell Wilson, who ended the season ranked in the bottom-5 in QBR. Wilson needs to bounce back after also signing a $245 million contract extension. I think they’ll improve slightly, but I still have Denver at 7 wins.


Las Vegas Raiders

  • 2022 Record: 6-11
  • Odds to win AFC West: +1700

Over/Under 6.5 Wins

Team Odds
Under -155
Over +125

The Raiders failed to repeat their playoff appearance from 2021 last year, winning just 6 games. Despite a tremendous breakout season from RB Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas couldn’t accomplish a winning record. With Jacobs and WR Davante Adams, the Raiders still have some key talent, but the departures of QB Derek Carr and TE Darren Waller will be a lot to overcome. I just don’t see Garoppolo leading them past 6 wins.

INGLEWOOD, CA - DECEMBER 08: Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs 28 runs during the NFL, American Football Herren, USA game between the Las Vegas Raiders and the Los Angeles Rams on December 08, 2022 in Inglewood, CA. Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire NFL: DEC 08 Raiders at Rams Icon20221208013


Keith McCarthy
Contributor Keith McCarthy is an experienced sports analyst with a passion for predicting the outcomes of games spanning across sports such as football, basketball, baseball, and hockey, with a special expertise in college sports.

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