NFL Week 9 Picks Against the Spread: Bears Lead Our Expert ATS Picks for Every Game

Week 9 brings a Thursday night game without Lamar Jackson, an early wake-up call from Madrid and a Monday night clash between two 6-1 teams. Here are our NFL Week 9 picks against the spread for every game, with the latest lines and how they’ve moved since we published.

For our picks every week of the season, see our NFL picks against the spread page, and you can find the latest NFL odds for every game here.

Update, Nov 6: Our second-best ATS pick has already landed. Jacksonville beat Baltimore 33-10 on Thursday night, covering Jaguars -7.5 by more than two touchdowns. The big move this week is in Seattle: Sam Darnold has been ruled out, Drew Lock starts, and the Seahawks have dropped from -11.5 to -8.5, so our Cardinals +11.5 pick now looks better than the market. Lines below are updated to Friday’s numbers.

NFL Week 9 ATS Picks at a Glance

Game	Kickoff (ET)	Our pick	Current line
Jaguars vs Ravens	Thu, Nov 5 · 8:15 PM	Jaguars -7.5	Jags Won, 33-10
Bengals vs Falcons (Madrid)	Sun, Nov 8 · 9:30 AM	Bengals -3.5	Bengals -3 (-113)
Browns vs Saints	Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM	Saints -2.5	Saints -3 (-116)
Cowboys vs Colts	Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM	Cowboys -5.5	Cowboys -5.5 (-108)
Jets vs Chiefs	Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM	Jets +10	Jets +10 (-115)
Lions vs Dolphins	Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM	Lions -7	Lions -7 (-107)
Broncos vs Panthers	Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM	Broncos -3	Broncos -2.5 (-115)
Giants vs Eagles	Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM	Giants -3	Giants -3 (-118)
Rams vs Commanders	Sun, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM	Commanders +5.5	Commanders +4.5 (-110)
Texans vs Chargers	Sun, Nov 8 · 4:05 PM	Texans -5.5	Texans -5.5 (-110)
Raiders vs 49ers	Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM	49ers -9.5	49ers -10 (-110)
Cardinals vs Seahawks	Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM	Cardinals +11.5	Cardinals +8.5 (-108)
Packers vs Patriots	Sun, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM	Patriots -3	Patriots -3 (-117)
Buccaneers vs Bears	Sun, Nov 8 · 8:20 PM	Bears -5.5	Bears -6 (-111)
Bills vs Vikings	Mon, Nov 9 · 8:15 PM	Bills -3.5	Bills -3 (-115)

Current lines from BetOnline as of Nov 6.

The Biggest Line Moves of Week 9

Seahawks vs Cardinals has moved the most. Seattle has dropped from -11.5 to -8.5 after Sam Darnold was ruled out with a quad injury, with Drew Lock, himself carrying an elbow problem, set to start. That’s a three-point swing, and anyone who took Arizona at +11.5 has beaten the market by three points.

The Jaguars move paid off. Jacksonville went from -7.5 to -10 after Lamar Jackson went on injured reserve, and the Jaguars won 33-10, covering both numbers comfortably.

Saints vs Browns has swung back. New Orleans dropped from -2.5 to -1 early in the week, but the money has come back the other way, and the Saints are now -3. Our Saints -2.5 is now half a point better than the market, and it gets us past the key number of 3.

The Commanders and Broncos have both moved half a point. Washington is down from +5.5 to +4.5, so the market has moved toward the Rams, and our +5.5 now has an extra point of cushion. Denver has dropped from -3 to -2.5, which makes a field-goal win a cover rather than a push.

The Bengals and Bills are still on the key number. Cincinnati is -3 in Madrid and Buffalo is -3 in Minnesota, both down from -3.5, so a field-goal win is a push rather than a loss. The Bears (-6) and 49ers (-10) are still half a point higher than when we published, and the Texans are back to -5.5 after dipping to -5.

NFL Week 9 Picks Against the Spread: Every Game

Jaguars vs Ravens ATS Pick: Jaguars -7.5

Thursday, Nov 5 · 8:15 PM ET · M&T Bank Stadium · Thursday Night Football

With Lamar Jackson on injured reserve after Week 8, the market has swung hard toward Jacksonville. The Jaguars’ defense is allowing just 17.3 points per game, while Baltimore may have to turn to third-string quarterback Joe Fagnano if Tyler Huntley doesn’t recover from his toe injury. Fagnano managed just 91 passing yards in Buffalo last week, and that says plenty about where this one is heading.

ATS pick: Jaguars -7.5

Result: Jaguars 33-10, pick won. Fagnano did start, and Jacksonville picked him off twice in his first NFL start. Trevor Lawrence threw a 50-yard touchdown to Parker Washington, and the Jaguars covered at both -7.5 and -10.

Bengals vs Falcons ATS Pick: Bengals -3.5

Sunday, Nov 8 · 9:30 AM ET · Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid

Cincinnati’s passing attack should eventually break down Atlanta’s defense. The Bengals can outscore anyone in the NFL when Joe Burrow gets going, and with elite targets downfield, they’re built to finish drives quickly. They put up 43 points last week even with four turnovers, and the Falcons, shut out in the rain in Tampa Bay, will struggle to keep pace.

ATS pick: Bengals -3.5

Line update (Nov 6): Cincinnati is -3 (-113). We’re sticking with the Bengals, and the new number is even better. A three-point win is now a push rather than a loss.

Browns vs Saints ATS Pick: Saints -2.5

Sunday, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET · Caesars Superdome

This is a clash of styles. The Saints have a solid attack and a poor defense, while the Browns have a poor attack and a solid defense. The difference-maker could be the venue. Cleveland hasn’t played a single indoor game this season, while New Orleans is right at home under the roof, and that’s enough for us to back the Saints to cover.

ATS pick: Saints -2.5

Line update (Nov 6): After dipping to -1 early in the week, New Orleans is back up to -3 (-116). We’re sticking with the Saints, and our -2.5 is now the better number: a three-point win covers at -2.5 but would only be a push at -3.

Cowboys vs Colts ATS Pick: Cowboys -5.5

Sunday, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET · Lucas Oil Stadium

The Colts are falling apart. A Jonathan Taylor trade looks inevitable; DeForest Buckner and Quenton Nelson are already gone, and there’s even talk of Shane Steichen’s job being at risk. Dallas, meanwhile, needs a response after the 33-30 overtime loss at home to the Cardinals, and a win here would do a lot for its playoff hopes.

ATS pick: Cowboys -5.5

Jets vs Chiefs ATS Pick: Jets +10

Sunday, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET · Arrowhead Stadium

Kansas City should win, but covering 10 points is another matter. The Chiefs have built their record on defense rather than blowouts, going into Week 8 with an average winning margin of just 6.7 points, and that’s down to around five after the loss in Denver. Despite their struggles, the Jets have been losing close games, with a points differential of just -18 over eight games. With Adonai Mitchell emerging and Braelon Allen running well, they have enough to stay inside the number.

ATS pick: Jets +10

Lions vs Dolphins ATS Pick: Lions -7

Sunday, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET · Hard Rock Stadium

Detroit has the third-best offense in the NFL at 29 points per game, while Miami sits second-to-last with just 16.7. The Lions also have 24 sacks, the third-most in the league, and ride a three-game winning streak into Miami, so we’re backing them to cover. Seven is a key number, so if you can find -6.5 anywhere, it’s worth grabbing.

ATS pick: Lions -7

Broncos vs Panthers ATS Pick: Broncos -3

Sunday, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET · Bank of America Stadium

Denver is red hot. The Broncos aren’t always pretty to watch, but they keep finding ways to win. Their defense should put Bryce Young under heavy pressure, and on current form, he’s going to have a hard time escaping that pass rush.

ATS pick: Broncos -3

Line update (Nov 6): Denver has dropped to -2.5 (-115). We’re sticking with the Broncos, and the new number is better: a field-goal win is now a cover rather than a push.

Giants vs Eagles ATS Pick: Giants -3

Sunday, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET · Lincoln Financial Field

The Eagles are without Jalen Hurts, and Saquon Barkley has looked sluggish. The Giants, meanwhile, are coming off a bye with two weeks to prepare for their shorthanded division rivals. Their run game was superb in their last outing in Houston, piling up 188 yards, and now faces a 28th-ranked run defense allowing almost 132 yards per game.

ATS pick: Giants -3

Rams vs Commanders ATS Pick: Commanders +5.5

Sunday, Nov 8 · 1:00 PM ET · Northwest Stadium

This should be a tough one. The Rams are solid and potent on offense, but the Commanders score plenty of points at home, and with Jayden Daniels healthy and ready to go, we’re siding with the hosts. They might not win, but 5.5 points is a cushion they can defend.

ATS pick: Commanders +5.5

Line update (Nov 6): Washington is down to +4.5 (-110). We’re sticking with the Commanders, and we’re glad we got the extra point early. A five-point Rams win covers for us at +5.5 but would lose at +4.5.

Texans vs Chargers ATS Pick: Texans -5.5

Sunday, Nov 8 · 4:05 PM ET · SoFi Stadium

Coming off their Week 8 bye, Houston’s pass rush has a favorable matchup against a Chargers offense averaging under 15 points per game. At 0-7, Los Angeles’ season is effectively over, and the Texans should be able to take care of business.

ATS pick: Texans -5.5

Line update (Nov 6): After dipping to -5 early in the week, Houston is back to -5.5 (-110), the number we published. We’re sticking with the Texans.

Raiders vs 49ers ATS Pick: 49ers -9.5

Sunday, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET · Levi’s Stadium

San Francisco’s versatile offense faces a Raiders defense allowing the second-most points in the league, at 28.8 per game. The 49ers are also fresh off a bye week, while Las Vegas heads back on the road.

ATS pick: 49ers -9.5

Line update (Nov 6): San Francisco is now -10. We’re sticking with the 49ers, but note that 10 is a key number in the NFL, so a 10-point win would now be a push rather than a cover.

Cardinals vs Seahawks ATS Pick: Cardinals +11.5

Sunday, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET · Lumen Field

Arizona’s defense ranks last in the league, giving up almost 30 points per game, but that’s not enough to make us lay 11.5 with Seattle. The Cardinals play with a nothing-to-lose mentality, and Gardner Minshew, who threw three touchdowns against Dallas last week, could start again at quarterback. That’s plenty of points to work with.

ATS pick: Cardinals +11.5

Line update (Nov 6): Sam Darnold has been ruled out with a quad injury, and Drew Lock, who’s dealing with an elbow issue of his own, starts for Seattle. The spread has dropped three points to Seahawks -8.5, with Arizona +8.5 (-108). We’re sticking with the Cardinals, and the market has moved our way. Without Darnold, an 11.5-point cushion looks even bigger.

Packers vs Patriots ATS Pick: Patriots -3

Sunday, Nov 8 · 4:25 PM ET · Gillette Stadium

Even with Josh Jacobs, Green Bay has struggled to establish a reliable ground game, and that could cost them at Gillette Stadium. The early forecast points to light rain and some wind, and against a solid Patriots defense, a team without a run game is at a real disadvantage.

ATS pick: Patriots -3

Buccaneers vs Bears ATS Pick: Bears -5.5

Sunday, Nov 8 · 8:20 PM ET · Soldier Field · Sunday Night Football

Tampa Bay arrives on a two-game winning streak, but we’re not convinced either win says much about the Bucs. Carolina fell apart at home, and last week’s win over Atlanta came on a field that looked more like a pool than a football stadium. Caleb Williams and a potent Bears offense should be able to expose Tampa Bay on Sunday night.

ATS pick: Bears -5.5

Line update (Nov 6): Chicago is -6 (-111). We’re sticking with the Bears, our best pick of the week. The extra half-point doesn’t change the case.

Bills vs Vikings ATS Pick: Bills -3.5

Monday, Nov 9 · 8:15 PM ET · U.S. Bank Stadium · Monday Night Football

Buffalo heads into Monday Night Football on back-to-back wins, averaging over 30 points per game in that stretch. Minnesota suffered its first loss of the season in Detroit, but there were signs of decline even before that defeat. Detroit also gave us the blueprint for beating this defense by leaning on the run, and if Buffalo does the same with James Cook, the Bills should be able to cover.

ATS pick: Bills -3.5

Line update (Nov 6): Buffalo is -3 (-115). We’re sticking with the Bills, and laying the key number of 3 rather than 3.5 means a field-goal win is now a push.

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Looking for our latest picks every week? Head to our NFL picks against the spread page, updated every week of the season. You can also see our moneyline and over/under picks for every game in our NFL picks for Week 9.

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